Weekly Report
Weekly Outlook: RMA Deadline Looms Large
September 22, 2025
Executive Summary
As we enter the final full week of September, the market is dominated by one overarching factor: the impending September 30th RMA (Risk Management Agency) insurance deadline. This policy-driven event is expected to create significant, predictable selling pressure across the Midwest. Our analysis indicates that logistics, particularly truck and rail capacity, will be the key differentiator for operators looking to capitalize on the resulting price dislocations. River constraints and a quiet export market for soybeans will continue to shape regional basis spreads.
Key Themes for the Week Ahead
1) The RMA Deadline Effect
The September 30th deadline for farmers to finalize their crop insurance coverage is the most significant known market-mover this week. Historically, this period sees farmers selling grain to establish a final price for insurance purposes, often leading to depressed prices at local elevators. We anticipate that a large number of routes—potentially over 60% of all state-to-state pairs—will trade below established price floors. The opportunities will not be in the price itself, but in the spreads created between these constrained locations and terminals with stronger demand.
2) Logistics Remain King
With barge traffic on the Mississippi still hampered by low water levels, truck freight will bear the brunt of harvest and RMA-related grain movement. We expect truck dependency to remain above 85% for viable arbitrage routes. This places a premium on operators with access to reliable trucking and knowledge of local elevator cycle times. Any disruption to rail service from major carriers like UP or BNSF could further tighten capacity and widen spreads on key corridors.
3) Monitoring the Soybean Export Market
The continued absence of major new-crop soybean purchases by China is a critical factor keeping a lid on basis in many areas. While this presents a headwind for producers, it creates stable, albeit lower-margin, arbitrage opportunities into domestic processing plants and secondary export channels. Any surprise announcement of a significant sale to China would immediately ripple through the market, causing a rapid recalibration of soybean routes.
Geographic Watchlist
- Missouri to Illinois: Expect this corridor to be a hotbed of RMA-driven activity, with significant selling pressure creating numerous short-haul truck opportunities.
- Indiana Mills: Continue to watch for high-protein wheat premiums, as this has been a consistent source of high-margin, short-haul routes.
- Nebraska Southeast: As the harvest accelerates, this region is prone to basis adjustments that could create new opportunities later in the week.